Fogies sheepish Advent Calendar 2021

[E.N.]

Up to 17 players

[Leg End Reject]

18 now!

[Mam of 4]

Just curious, E.N. can you remember how many players last year?

[E.N.]

Just curious,  E.N. can you remember how many players last year?

47 last year! I looked recently.
Shame, I suspect it might be similar if boards hadn't migrated

Up to 20 now though, so still doing well

[E.N.]

So far we have...

aaronjennings	davetherave	lorcand1990	nothing
ari101	DvB	Loughc	Quickbeam
Barna77	Homer J. Fong	Mam of 4	Sawduck
BuileBeag	Kol	Necro	ShaneU
Butty Brennan	Leg End Reject	Neowise	Trigger

...and cee_jay ruining my table

So here's a friendly nudge/harassment for @DejaBoo ,@Wichita Lineman @Zaph @Toto Wolfcastle @Rachel Stevens on a Pogo Stick @Edser @EEFGGFEDCCDEEDD @Irish Aris @jp liz v1 @Mollyb60 @osh @Spears @Sephiroth_Dude

If you read this and I didn't mention you - sorry! You're very, very welcome

[RSOAPS]

I must politely decline this year sadly.

[Spears]

& i'm in the race!

[DejaBoo]

Hmm, I didn't go with my gut answer- doubt this will bode well for my ultimate goal to be winning SantySheep in charge of the Naughty Ba-a-a-a and Nice list this year. 


Ah well, wooden spoons are good too - back to Elf chores for me...

[E.N.]

Up to 25 now, the harassment worked

Still plenty of time, will take entries until 9pm. That was just a nudge in case anyone missed it

[Trigger]

Just curious,  E.N. can you remember how many players last year?

Curious my arse.. checking for %'s eh?

[Leg End Reject]

I've pimped this out over yonder again with a link to this thread. I'll be banned for spamming or FoG added to the censor list.

[E.N.]

I've pimped this out over yonder again with a link to this thread. I'll be banned for spamming or FoG added to the censor list.

Cheers Leggy - if you get banned I'll write you a letter of support

[Mam of 4]

Just curious,  E.N. can you remember how many players last year?

Curious my arse.. checking for %'s eh?

Lol you caught me out , I said I'd ask innocently for the rest of ye that actually know what to do with the percentage, as I wouldn't have a fecking clue

[lorcand1990]

Curious my arse.. checking for %'s eh?

Lol you caught me out , I said I'd ask innocently for the rest of ye that actually know what to do with the percentage, as I wouldn't have a fecking clue

Wait,  hang on.. is there actually some sort of tactic that can be used here with the %? I'm using the 'randomly guess' method 

[quickbeam]

Are percentages rounded to the nearest 10% btw?

[E.N.]

Are percentages rounded to the nearest 10% btw?

I only realised today I needed to sort this
No - I'll calculate scores exactly then round them to the nearest 1%

And while we're clarifying rules - if you miss any day you'll score 10% more than the highest score that day.
But if you know you won't be online drop me a PM in advance and I can send you the question

[quickbeam]

Lol you caught me out , I said I'd ask innocently for the rest of ye that actually know what to do with the percentage, as I wouldn't have a fecking clue

Wait,  hang on.. is there actually some sort of tactic that can be used here with the %? I'm using the 'randomly guess' method 

Now that EN has clarified, my strategy is that if I answer Yes, then my percentage is at least 1% and if I answer No, my percentage is at most 99%. Beyond that, it's pining a tail on a donkey for me but at least I've narrowed my range down a bit.

[Trigger]

Lol you caught me out , I said I'd ask innocently for the rest of ye that actually know what to do with the percentage, as I wouldn't have a fecking clue

Wait,  hang on.. is there actually some sort of tactic that can be used here with the %? I'm using the 'randomly guess' method 

Yes...

[E.N.]

So far we have...

aaronjennings	davetherave	lorcand1990	nothing
ari101	DvB	Loughc	Quickbeam
Barna77	Homer J. Fong	Mam of 4	Sawduck
BuileBeag	Kol	Necro	ShaneU
Butty Brennan	Leg End Reject	Neowise	Trigger

...and cee_jay ruining my table

DejaBoo, Zaph, Toto Wolfcastle, Irish Aris, jp liz v1, Spears and Sephiroth_Dude have brought us to 28

I have to surrender the work laptop to Mrs EN now (the joys of juggling two of us working) but hopefully I'll have it back for the reveal at 9!

[lorcand1990]

Wait,  hang on.. is there actually some sort of tactic that can be used here with the %? I'm using the 'randomly guess' method 

Yes...

Oh so that's how it is, eh?

[Leg End Reject]

Yes...

Oh so that's how it is, eh?

Ask yourself how many normal people would say yes out of the total number of players, then go with the opposite.

So if 15 out of 20 normal people would be expected to say yes, that's 75%.

As we're not normal say 25% would say yes.

[BuileBeag]

Ask yourself how many normal people would say yes out of the total number of players, then go with the opposite.

So if 15 out of 20 normal people would be expected to say yes, that's 75%.

As we're not normal say 25% would say yes.

How dare you!!! 

[Neowise]

Wait,  hang on.. is there actually some sort of tactic that can be used here with the %? I'm using the 'randomly guess' method 

Now that EN has clarified, my strategy is that if I answer Yes, then my percentage is at least 1% and if I answer No, my percentage is at most 99%.  Beyond that, it's pining a tail on a donkey for me but at least I've narrowed my range down a bit.

well, if the is 20 of us, that percentage increases to 5% and 95%.

I doubt we will get to 100 entrants, where your 1% and 99% would ring true.

[Neowise]

Now that EN has clarified, my strategy is that if I answer Yes, then my percentage is at least 1% and if I answer No, my percentage is at most 99%.  Beyond that, it's pining a tail on a donkey for me but at least I've narrowed my range down a bit.

well, if the is 20 of us, that percentage increases to 5% and 95%.

I doubt we will get to 100 entrants, where your 1% and 99% would ring true.

oh, i see there is 28 now, so more like 3% and 97%.

[E.N.]

Edser brings us to 29 players

So each player's answer is worth 3.4482758621%
Just in case that helps your calcs

[Trigger]

Booooooooooo

[E.N.]

Booooooooooo

No, they're saying "Boo-Edser"

[Edser]

Booooooooooo

No, they're saying "Boo-Edser"

Sorry. Need a couple more now 

[Trigger]

Booooooooooo

No, they're saying "Boo-Edser"

No, edser is great, it's more you giving away percentages

[quickbeam]

well, if the is 20 of us, that percentage increases to 5% and 95%.

I doubt we will get to 100 entrants, where your 1% and 99% would ring true.

Hence ‘at least 1%’ and ‘at most 99%’

[Sephiroth_Dude]

Popcorn and all ready 

[E.N.]

Sorry, reveal will be late. Munchkin bedtime going to shit

[E.N.]

OK, one handed reveal on the phone with a 3yr old asleep in my arms, easy

The correct answer today was 75.9%
That's 22 out of 29 of you who have started...

YES	NO
aaronjennings	davetherave
ari101	DejaBoo
Barna77	Irish Aris
BuileBeag	Loughc
Butty Brennan	Quickbeam
cee_jay	Sephiroth_Dude
DvB	Spears
Edser
Homer J. Fong
jp liz v1
Kol
Leg End Reject
lorcand1990
Mam of 4
Necro
Neowise
nothing
Sawduck
ShaneU
Toto Wolfcastle
Trigger
Zaph

[E.N.]

And we have a big spread of scores already...

Player	Answer	Guess	Score
Sephiroth_Dude	No	15%	61
davetherave	No	35%	41
Toto Wolfcastle	Yes	35%	41
Barna77	Yes	40%	36
Spears	No	40%	36
Butty Brennan	Yes	42%	34
DvB	Yes	50%	26
aaronjennings	Yes	50%	26
Kol	Yes	59%	17
nothing	Yes	60%	16
Loughc	No	60%	16
ari101	Yes	60%	16
Irish Aris	No	60%	16
DejaBoo	No	60%	16
BuileBeag	Yes	65%	11
Zaph	Yes	65%	11
Mam of 4	Yes	67%	9
Neowise	Yes	67%	9
lorcand1990	Yes	70%	6
cee_jay	Yes	70%	6
Edser	Yes	70%	6
Homer J. Fong	Yes	75%	1
jp liz v1	Yes	75%	1
Quickbeam	No	80%	4
Necro	Yes	80%	4
Sawduck	Yes	80%	4
Leg End Reject	Yes	80%	4
ShaneU	Yes	85%	9
Trigger	Yes	92%	16

[Toto Wolfcastle]

Jaysus.

[E.N.]

So Homer and Liz set the early pace
Sephi had some ground to make up
Dave hasn't brought his sheep/peehs game over!

Still all too play for of course

[nothing]

I've mine finished!

[aaronjennings]

Wow, and I was thinking 50% might be too high

[DejaBoo]

75% ya say? (colour me shocked)  - all dat "bahhumbug wait till december to get yer christmas knickers on," indeed!  

---ah now, yer all a bunch of christmas looooovers, you are!  Get thee to the Christmas thread and celebrate, y'all

[Leg End Reject]

FFS, I changed from 75% to 80%!