Disney Classics Werewolf

[Dexter the Dragoon]

Was raging my phone died when I was out but worth it to come back to that.

This I thought was Amy claiming.

[Jacob the Tailor]

This I thought was Amy claiming.

Pushing the boat out with that, Amy...pardon the pun

[Vincent the Artist]

@Lilly the Millennial
@Amy the Singer
@Zeena Warrior Princess
@Vincent the Artist

Each state your case for not being blasted by my laser, please

Not sure how to state my case. I'm highest on your wolf list. I've no role claim to allude to. I'm not sure what will shift the dial for me.

If you shoot, you shoot. Time will prove I am what I say I am. The job remaining to me as a villager is to point towards where the wolves lie for tonight's lynch whether I'm here for that or not

[Jacob the Tailor]

@Lilly the Millennial
@Amy the Singer
@Zeena Warrior Princess
@Vincent the Artist

Each state your case for not being blasted by my laser, please

Not sure how to state my case. I'm highest on your wolf list. I've no role claim to allude to. I'm not sure what will shift the dial for me.

If you shoot, you shoot. Time will prove I am what I say I am. The job remaining to me as a villager is to point towards where the wolves lie for tonight's lynch whether I'm here for that or not

And Zeena is your number one wold, why?

[Dexter the Dragoon]

Pushing the boat out with that, Amy...pardon the pun

😂 That's terrible.. 

And, it was lilly saying that she thought it was Amy claiming she had the gun with that post.

[Vincent the Artist]

Why Zeena as most wolf?

I go back to a point raised by Dexter earlier in the game that it is likely that one of the two new players is a baddie. It's a fair theory that the village should explore.

So I was looking at the lower posters last night a little,  with the two newbies being the bottom two (which could probably be expected) but it led me to thinking what are the chances of at least one of them being bad.. so I did the Maths and taking the 2 newbies, 15 players and 5 bad roles, there is a 57% chance that at least one of them could Rand as bad.
...

Boris had said the best way to get into the game is to interact and that's what I'm doing. My engagement grew as we moved from broad set up of a game where opinions came from knowledge/experience to looking at stuff that has happened in this game. I'm engaging with the posts, asking questions, trying to tease through things.

As someone who is trying to wrap my head around things, I've a bit bemused that I'm not seeing the same level of questioning and engagement with the discussions from Zeena. I'm left wondering if that's because there's another outlet for reasonable newbie questions.

Most of the initial posts focused on being new or confused. Last night into today, there's been a fair bit of questioning of Amy so there are signs of a changing pattern of play.

As one of the two new players, I know it's not me. But it's a reasonable theory and I've coupled it with my deduction on the numbers from the Oprah lynch where one of Zeena and Lilly must be a wolf. The numbers allow for it to be neither of us so I could be giving a bad steer.

[Lilly the Millennial]

This I thought was Amy claiming.

Pushing the boat out with that, Amy...pardon the pun

What can I say? It's what I thought!

[Jacob the Tailor]

@Lilly the Millennial your village core and your two wolves, go

[Zeena Warrior Princess]

Well I'm back.

God Jacob your gas, what I don't don't understand is who declared you the judge?

In my eyes the only one who is definitely good is Dexter. Anyone else could be up for questioning but you seem to be able to sail though without a bother and Amy & Dexter have your back.

Now maybe I'm missing something very obvious that says your good and if I am well I'll have to do better in next game(although I don't know if I ever want to play again!)

Do we actually get to talk about this on boards afterwards so it can all be explained to me!

I've tried to increase my participation but for whatever reasons what I propose( I get they might not be very good suggestions) are not even looked at like Amy.

Now Vincent is at me aswell, just because he seems to be able to get a handle on things quicker you all think he is great. Have a good hard think, do people usually get us a quick as him? Maybe they do.

Im not a wolf, shot me if you want I really don't care at this stage but you will be another village person down( Although you all seem to think I'm no use anyway!)

[Dexter the Dragoon]

@Amy the Singer if using wagonomics and the balance of probabilities, you come out on top as the most likely to be in a team of 2. Obviously wagonomics is only a tool to use alongside your thoughts but can you show me something on any of the other players that would lead them to be a better candidate for lynch than you?

[Amy the Singer]

@Amy the Singer if using wagonomics and the balance of probabilities, you come out on top as the most likely to be in a team of 2. Obviously wagonomics is only a tool to use alongside your thoughts but can you show me something on any of the other players that would lead them to be a better candidate for lynch than you?

Honestly there isn't a huge amount. If you think we can spare a kill I'd volunteer for it but I'm not sure we can. 

Vincent is very measured and collected. 
Zeena is more engaged today. Is this coz they have to be? 
Lilly I still think is a wolf. 
I'm somewhat biased as I'd be surprised if the 2 newbies were both wolves.  
My best guess right now is Lilly and Zeena but again that's being influenced by thinking the wolves would have split last night. 
The wagonomics were screwed on N1 by Scar's actions. I was swayed into voting CM by it so I'm wary of trusting it.

[Jacob the Tailor]

Well I'm back.

God Jacob your gas, what I don't don't understand is who declared you the judge?

In my eyes the only one who is definitely good is Dexter. Anyone else could be up for questioning but you seem to be able to sail though without a bother and Amy & Dexter have your back.

Now maybe I'm missing something very obvious that says your good and if I am well I'll have to do better in next game(although I don't know if I ever want to play again!)

Do we actually get to talk about this on boards afterwards so it can all be explained to me!

I've tried to increase my participation but for whatever reasons what I propose( I get they might not be very good suggestions) are not even looked at like Amy.

Now Vincent is at me aswell, just because he seems to be able to get a handle on things quicker you all think he is great. Have a good hard think, do people usually get us a quick as him? Maybe they do.

Im not a wolf, shot me if you want I really don't care at this stage but you will be another village person down( Although you all seem to think I'm no use anyway!)

My laser in between your eyes will make me judge. Give me your village core and two wolves, please

[Dexter the Dragoon]

@Amy the Singer if using wagonomics and the balance of probabilities, you come out on top as the most likely to be in a team of 2. Obviously wagonomics is only a tool to use alongside your thoughts but can you show me something on any of the other players that would lead them to be a better candidate for lynch than you?

Honestly there isn't a huge amount. If you think we can spare a kill I'd volunteer for it but I'm not sure we can. 

Vincent is very measured and collected. 
Zeena is more engaged today. Is this coz they have to be? 
Lilly I still think is a wolf. 
I'm somewhat biased as I'd be surprised if the 2 newbies were both wolves.  
My best guess right now is Lilly and Zeena but again that's being influenced by thinking the wolves would have split last night. 
The wagonomics were screwed on N1 by Scar's actions. I was swayed into voting CM by it so I'm wary of trusting it.

Of course you would be wary of trusting it, it points squarely at you. 

Why would you think wagonomics were screwed by scars actions? The kills were made AFTER votes closed. I'm fact, I would say those results are a truer representation as Wolves would have been more comfortable to vote off wagon.because they would have thought there would be more votes off it than their was. In fact, it wasn't until 20 past 9 that Scar killed Gordon, so i really don't understand your point

[Dexter the Dragoon]

Personal Wagonomics probability highlighted from green(high) to red (low)

   

Heading out now so will be back later

[Amy the Singer]

Honestly there isn't a huge amount. If you think we can spare a kill I'd volunteer for it but I'm not sure we can. 

Vincent is very measured and collected. 
Zeena is more engaged today. Is this coz they have to be? 
Lilly I still think is a wolf. 
I'm somewhat biased as I'd be surprised if the 2 newbies were both wolves.  
My best guess right now is Lilly and Zeena but again that's being influenced by thinking the wolves would have split last night. 
The wagonomics were screwed on N1 by Scar's actions. I was swayed into voting CM by it so I'm wary of trusting it.

Of course you would be wary of trusting it, it points squarely at you. 

Why would you think wagonomics were screwed by scars actions? The kills were made AFTER votes closed. I'm fact, I would say those results are a truer representation as Wolves would have been more comfortable to vote off wagon.because they would have thought there would be more votes off it than their was. In fact, it wasn't until 20 past 9 that Scar killed Gordon, so i really don't understand your point

My point is that I was convinced CM was a wolf on the basis that they would have spread out. I know for a fact that the remaining 2 were on Oprah N1. It's telling you now that I'm a wolf when I'm not so they are screwed. My point about Scar is that those kills ruled out most of the outlier votes which narrowed the list further. 
Look you can lynch me to find out Im telling the truth but numbers are then 3 v 2 with a munch to follow so essentially game over. 
Im going to go with Lilly. If Im right we get a wolf and hopefully that'll convince you I'm telling the truth.

[Dexter the Dragoon]

I'm exploring all possibilities, should I not do that? I wouldn't discount an Amy/Lilly combo though 🤔

[Dexter the Dragoon]

@Amy the Singer FWIW you only started not trusting the wagonomics AFTER it started pointing at you. That's sussy as hell tbf, can you not agree there?

[Jacob the Tailor]

I'm exploring all possibilities, should I not do that? I wouldn't discount an Amy/Lilly combo though 🤔

I'll happily shoot one of the two

[Amy the Singer]

@Amy the Singer  FWIW you only started not trusting the wagonomics AFTER it started pointing at you. That's sussy as hell tbf, can you not agree there?

I started not trusting it after I fucked up with it. 
I was fully expecting CM to be a wolf. He wasn't. From my perspective I know what I know which is the 2 have to be on Oprah coz its not me. Sure it looks suspicious to you because you cant be sure but from my perspective I know with certainty that it is fallible. 

I'm a villager. I'm on here fighting and will keep doing it coz I want a village win. I'd love to be able to point at one of the others and say they are clearly a wolf but I can't. I'm convinced on Lilly based on initial gut and then subsequent interactions. I've ignored my gut to my detriment in the past so Im sticking there. Then it is a toss up between the other two.

[Amy the Singer]

I'm exploring all possibilities, should I not do that? I wouldn't discount an Amy/Lilly combo though 🤔

I'll happily shoot one of the two

If you shoot me I'll flip village. Then it's 3 v 2. Then it is LYLO without waiting for the munch.
If you get Hans it's 3 v 1
If you get Gaston it's 2 v 1 with munch in hand and wolf win. 
I mentioned earlier that Jacob had a suggestion that could avoid exploding Gaston being an issue. If that is accurate, it might be worth a shot - pun intended.

[Dexter the Dragoon]

I wouldn't be worrying too much about Gaston 😉

[Jacob the Tailor]

Amy didn't post the ISO's


Can you expand on this part please, what else did you notice

On mobile and finding it hard with all the multi quotes to keep track of poster on header. She said she ISOd Lilly and me so thought all the multi quotes were her. Don't want to say what I noticed as I've done enough damage, but it was a query regarding a village role.

Was this Raymond telling Amy to post ISOs in backroom and he jumped the gun here when he thought she did?

[Jacob the Tailor]

Am struggling a bit getting going if I'm honest. A bit busier than I thought I'd be so mostly monitoring thread and jumping in when I can. Happy to answer any questions though. 
Currently doing a redback and updating my notes.

You said you had an ISO done earlier and now you're taking more notes?

More interaction with Amy

[Jacob the Tailor]

Honestly right now Amy is my biggest red flag.

Much as I don't like Gordon's declare two votes plan, which completely contradicts his earlier devils advocating of an ongoing tally of votes, I don't see a wolf being that noisy and drawing that much heat early on.

Earlier I thought Amy had done detailed ISOs of Lilly and me to support us as top two suspect but that was actually Dexter and she just stated she had done an ISO and we were top two. Now several hours later she is taking notes when she said approx half three she would be home in an hour to post her ISOs she'd already done. Added to that she was very quick to jump on Gordon's frankly terrible two votes declaration which only benefits wolves. It's not a good look.

Wasn't a fan of Oprah's posts towards Xeena but not enough to vote there. The more they post the more I don't like it. Very defensive, saying people who posted before them are parroting them is ridiculous. Don't see much attempt at wolf hunting.

Lilly still towards the top of my suspicions also. Conflicted as to whether they were putting pressure or role hunting, although same could be said of me.

There's a few floating middle people not making much of an impression, which worries me a bit. Friar, Moe, Countess.

Good for me are Boris, Mc and Jacob.

Does a wolf put another wolf as biggest red flag? I don't think so

[Jacob the Tailor]

Expand on this...

With the numbers we need to focus on catching a wolf today and analytically the best bet is in those three posters

If Amy is a wolf than I can't be a wolf as I wouldn't have started a wagon on a wolf. If I am a wolf than Amy would be town as why start wagon on a wolf.

We could also both be town. I know I'm village, don't know Amy's alignment. 

We have to be super careful as we can't afford to flip wrong. For me Countess has more red flags than Amy at this stage. I can't get past claiming not to know whether Elsa was good or bad and not noticing Mc clearing Jacob.

Raymond goes in hard on the whole he and Amy can't both be wolves.

[Jacob the Tailor]

OK finally caught up.

Dexter: big claim of core village, no counterclaim so will believe for now. This is good as the Vincent shooting thing was mighty flippant when it was 5 vs 4, gave me a big pause.

Countess. I still think they are playing the Fool and floating along. Not knowing Elsa was village, not noticing the Jacob/Mc clear, now rowing in behind Amy and Dexter voting for me on a spurious basis right after saying best odds on finding a wolf were in the Oprah voters.

Jake to me is either Hans or village based on the McDonald clear, I think the wolves would have known Mc Donald was bluffing if another wolf bar Hans was cleared. But then they would they not have munched Mc if Jacob was Hans? don't find their posts particularly helpful and there was some misattributing of votes at tally last night. Not really sure about Jake

Xeena: I know she is new but that's all she says. Asks what's going on and what is happening. Not posting much and there doesn't seem to be any eagerness to wolf hunt.

Vincent. Very similar to Xeena. Not posting much. Not trying to figure things out. The is village good question seemed in stark contrast to assessing the hit rate of dead rolled posters vs NRVs. Scrupulously polite, as if not trying to make waves.

Lilly: Dunno. I wasn't keen on them yesterday, in large part due to the Mc power thief thing. When mc turned out to be scar didn't have as much misgivings about Lily, but they have been quite absent today which is giving me pause.

Amy: that's were I voted yesterday and I have stated my reasons, and they are still valid. The posting last night reassured me more and they are very active again today which is good. I don't like pushing the narrative that Boris peeked me and was hinting I was bad. I know he couldn't have done that as I'm village. His posts were questioning my reasons for voting on Amy, and at one point suggested I was confused. I'm wondering based on his querying of the Mc move, that he was wolf or village but not scar, and that since Dora was good that I should be looked at, whether he peeked Amy who showed as good, so Amy either village or Hans.

I will say Amy and Countess seemed most bummed about the 5 vs 4 situation earlier. Dexter seemed quite energised which bothers me, but role claim is a role claim.

Village to wolf

Village Dexter, me

Middle Amy, Jake, Lilly

Wolfiest Countess, Vincent, Xeena.

Not sure what way to vote.

Look at his wolfiest, Countess was village. Would be out a wolf in the wolfiest especially after losing a head wolf? Probably not.

Lily and Amy in the middle, there's a wolf there 100%

[Jacob the Tailor]

@Raymond the Shoemaker  - if you could expand a bit on what you mean about my not reacting I'm more than happy to try to respond

You are addressing it now but not at the time when it happened, that's what's bothering me. If you didn't see it I'd understand that as an explanation. It just seems off to me.

He goes after Vincent too. I think this clears Vincent. There's a wolf in Amy, Lilly and Zeena

[Jacob the Tailor]

Who am I shooting guys, it's possible Raymond played the red flag VOTE Amy night one and if she were to die before him use it to gain village favour.

Raymond goes after Vincent in messages as well as puts him in his most wolfiest before he was laser beamed. Alongside Countess and Zeena. I really don't think he would have put a wolf in wolfiest but if he thought Amy was going to go down it would benefit him in the long run, a selfish wolf.

[Jacob the Tailor]

Have read back and ISOd everyone. From my notes, Lily and Ray are suspicious. Both of them emphasise the peeking good wolf, which tbh is almost standard in most games these days so not really worth noting. It's mostly tone reading for me - neither come across as sincere, it feels forced.

That said, my notes on others are largely 'unsure' because it's D1 and there's the usual amount of nothing to go on.

Early days Amy pointing at Lily and Wolf Ray, do we see Amy turn away soon and why? I'm posting as a read sorry for the shit show of comments

[Jacob the Tailor]

Heading out in a few. Notes below.

Boris the Fool Bit spatty.Contributing. Sort of agree on the OTT thing. Engaged and challening people. Wouldn't vote here for now.

Countess Markievicz Measured. Unsure here. Not a lot of posts throughout the day. Doesn't feel like village game but they've been v quiet.

Dexter the Dragoon High poster. If wolf, Hans. Likely to draw munch or be peeked. Bit all over the place which makes me think village.

Dora the Explorer 1 Post but has done the maths. ISOd Friar Tuck. Why them? More posts today. Analysing with conclusions. If wolf, doing a lot of work. Not sure I agree on Dex but working. I'm on FFA but currently reading through my posts - cart before horse?

Friar Tuck Dora doesn't like posts but not seeing a lot here. Very low posting. Be good to hear more.

Gordon the Cook Mostly leaning good here. Observant and engaged. Putting thoughts out there.

Jacob the Tailor Exactly 5 posts yesterday. Tone reading - seems a bit stating the obvious. Bit off. Also says Oprah sowing confusion. Is this not echoing what Dex said? Collusion in BR?

Lilly the Millennial Unsure of opening post. Something a bit off there tonewise. Post about post counts. Spotted thing on powers thief. Quotes without names thing. Shoot @McD, peek @Dex. Quite defensive in responses today. Can't shake the tone being off.

McDonald the Farmer What's with the powers thief? I read it as apprentice. Seems to be just reading and reacting. Aggressive enough. Not sure about the just 2 on FFA thing. Overall neutral to village for me.

Moe the Innkeeper 1 Post but experienced enough. Limited posts today. Hard to get a read but asking questions and gave reads on readback. Again would like to hear more.

Oprah the Gossip Are they sowing confusion? Not sure I agree with that read. The are 'tunnelling' on Cruella - easy place to boost post counts. Defensive enough. One to watch.

Raymond the Shoemaker Paying attention, corrected Dex. Unfinished post? Says something v similar to Lily about wolf peeking good. Suggests discussions around vote tallying are OTT. Not against discussion but manner of it. Questions McD on Jacob veto. Definitely aware of what's happening but posts today read better tonewise.

Something off about this post. She goes for lily early-ish here and says lily is off and has Raymond right down the bottom as if he was almost forgotten.

[Jacob the Tailor]

Based on my notes my #FFA:

Lily
Jacob
Countess M

I'm going to put my vote in for Lily.

Vote gone in for lilly.

Those two wolves play the game of voting each other early days?

[Dexter the Dragoon]

Honestly right now Amy is my biggest red flag.

Much as I don't like Gordon's declare two votes plan, which completely contradicts his earlier  devils advocating of an ongoing tally of votes, I don't see a wolf being that noisy and drawing that much heat early on.

Earlier I thought Amy had done detailed ISOs of Lilly and me to support us as top two suspect but that was actually Dexter and she just stated she had done an ISO and we were top two. Now several hours later she is taking notes when she said approx half three she would be home in an hour to post her ISOs she'd already done. Added to that she was very quick to jump on Gordon's frankly terrible two votes declaration which only benefits wolves. It's not a good look.

Wasn't a fan of Oprah's posts towards Xeena but not enough to vote there. The more they post the more I don't like it. Very defensive, saying people who posted before them are parroting them is ridiculous. Don't see much attempt at wolf hunting.

Lilly still towards the top of my suspicions also. Conflicted as to whether they were putting pressure or role hunting, although same could be said of me.

There's a few floating middle people not making much of an impression, which worries me a bit. Friar, Moe, Countess.

Good for me are Boris, Mc and Jacob.

Does a wolf put another wolf as biggest red flag? I don't think so

I was just wanting some answers with my posts, I think my list stays the same for now

[Jacob the Tailor]

I voted Amy fairly early, so I'm not sure why you are saying I am confused. They claimed they had taken detailed notes at half three and would post them at half four but when I questioned them far later than that they said they were still compiling notes. I also didn't like their support for the Gordon two votes plan, which could have led to an inadvertent tie.

To clarify this again...I did do ISOs early on but I had very limited time yesterday so I was going back over thread to see if anything had changed. You can actually see it in the notes I posted that I added to them and my thinking progressed. You seem hung up on this idea that I didn't do the ISOs early on. I did, I just didn't post a wall of quotes along with it because I don't actually think they're very helpful.  
Based on early reads you and Lilly were suspicious to me. Based on later reads, you fell down the suspicious pecking order. 
On the Gordon's idea thing - I didn't spend a whole lotta time thinking about it but it was based on the idea that declaring and tallying votes wasn't the best idea, which had been a running theme. In the end, majority decided against it, and I went with that. As I recall, I might've been the most vocal about going along with that plan but I don't think I was the only - going back to read that now to be sure.

And here we have it. Ray falls down the pecking order suddenly based on reads .

[Jacob the Tailor]

Because at the time before the lynch, there were 2 wagons. Oprah and Amy, I wasn't a counter wagon based on the tallies by Jacob and Mc.
Wolves are known to spread across the wagons.

But you were working with the vote counts AFTER the lynch. It's literally in your post.

Ray is in the rearview after Amy and rays voting iso spat and now lilly is getting Amy's heat.

[Dexter the Dragoon]

Oh I see you are tunneling.. nevermind me 😂😂

[Jacob the Tailor]

To add to that, I think if Ray flips bad, I think Amy is the other one there due to Rays "clear" comment

Well you are wrong. I'm not a wolf.

We good to shoot Amy, Dex?

[Dexter the Dragoon]

You are addressing it now but not at the time when it happened, that's what's bothering me. If you didn't see it I'd understand that as an explanation. It just seems off to me.

He goes after Vincent too. I think this clears Vincent. There's a wolf in Amy, Lilly and Zeena

By that logic there is 2 in there..

[Jacob the Tailor]

Current village to wolf list:

Amy
Dex
Countess
Jacob
Zeena
Vincent
Lilly
Raymond

And Amy is back o nRaymond suddenly. I think ktnis is a sacrificial wolf situation

[Jacob the Tailor]

I'm on Ray myself

@Lilly the Millennial I didn't insinuate anything about you being a wolf. In fact if you had read up to date you'd see that I actually said that Boris soft cleared you.

Backs off lily a bit here

[Jacob the Tailor]

Also, just in case, Lilly referring to CM as Connie is ringing alarm bells but I could well be down a tunnel there.

Goes and highlight silly again, citing she's tunneling. A wolf doesnt tunnel another wolf