(13-08-2025, 11:22 AM)Lilly the Millennial Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 07:53 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Was raging my phone died when I was out but worth it to come back to that.

This I thought was Amy claiming.

(13-08-2025, 11:30 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 11:22 AM)Lilly the Millennial Wrote: This I thought was Amy claiming.

(13-08-2025, 10:53 AM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote: @Lilly the Millennial
@Amy the Singer
@Zeena Warrior Princess
@Vincent the Artist

Each state your case for not being blasted by my laser, please

(13-08-2025, 11:34 AM)Vincent the Artist Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 10:53 AM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote: @Lilly the Millennial
@Amy the Singer
@Zeena Warrior Princess
@Vincent the Artist

Each state your case for not being blasted by my laser, please

Not sure how to state my case. I'm highest on your wolf list. I've no role claim to allude to. I'm not sure what will shift the dial for me.

If you shoot, you shoot. Time will prove I am what I say I am. The job remaining to me as a villager is to point towards where the wolves lie for tonight's lynch whether I'm here for that or not

(13-08-2025, 11:33 AM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 11:30 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote:

Pushing the boat out with that, Amy...pardon the pun

(13-08-2025, 11:27 AM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote: Why Zeena as most wolf?

(12-08-2025, 08:03 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: So I was looking at the lower posters last night a little,  with the two newbies being the bottom two (which could probably be expected) but it led me to thinking what are the chances of at least one of them being bad.. so I did the Maths and taking the 2 newbies, 15 players and 5 bad roles, there is a 57% chance that at least one of them could Rand as bad.
...

(13-08-2025, 11:30 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 11:22 AM)Lilly the Millennial Wrote: This I thought was Amy claiming.

(13-08-2025, 11:33 AM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 11:30 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote:

Pushing the boat out with that, Amy...pardon the pun

(13-08-2025, 01:18 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: @Amy the Singer if using wagonomics and the balance of probabilities, you come out on top as the most likely to be in a team of 2. Obviously wagonomics is only a tool to use alongside your thoughts but can you show me something on any of the other players that would lead them to be a better candidate for lynch than you?

(13-08-2025, 01:17 PM)Zeena Warrior Princess Wrote: Well I'm back.

God Jacob your gas, what I don't don't understand is who declared you the judge?

In my eyes the only one who is definitely good is Dexter. Anyone else could be up for questioning but you seem to be able to sail though without a bother and Amy & Dexter have your back.

Now maybe I'm missing something very obvious that says your good and if I am well I'll have to do better in next game(although I don't know if I ever want to play again!)

Do we actually get to talk about this on boards afterwards so it can all be explained to me!

I've tried to increase my participation but for whatever reasons what I propose( I get they might not be very good suggestions) are not even looked at like Amy.

Now Vincent is at me aswell, just because he seems to be able to get a handle on things quicker you all think he is great. Have a good hard think, do people usually get us a quick as him? Maybe they do.

Im not a wolf, shot me if you want I really don't care at this stage but you will be another village person down( Although you all seem to think I'm no use anyway!)

(13-08-2025, 01:31 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 01:18 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: @Amy the Singer if using wagonomics and the balance of probabilities, you come out on top as the most likely to be in a team of 2. Obviously wagonomics is only a tool to use alongside your thoughts but can you show me something on any of the other players that would lead them to be a better candidate for lynch than you?

Honestly there isn't a huge amount. If you think we can spare a kill I'd volunteer for it but I'm not sure we can. 

Vincent is very measured and collected. 
Zeena is more engaged today. Is this coz they have to be? 
Lilly I still think is a wolf. 
I'm somewhat biased as I'd be surprised if the 2 newbies were both wolves.  
My best guess right now is Lilly and Zeena but again that's being influenced by thinking the wolves would have split last night. 
The wagonomics were screwed on N1 by Scar's actions. I was swayed into voting CM by it so I'm wary of trusting it.

(13-08-2025, 01:42 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 01:31 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Honestly there isn't a huge amount. If you think we can spare a kill I'd volunteer for it but I'm not sure we can. 

Vincent is very measured and collected. 
Zeena is more engaged today. Is this coz they have to be? 
Lilly I still think is a wolf. 
I'm somewhat biased as I'd be surprised if the 2 newbies were both wolves.  
My best guess right now is Lilly and Zeena but again that's being influenced by thinking the wolves would have split last night. 
The wagonomics were screwed on N1 by Scar's actions. I was swayed into voting CM by it so I'm wary of trusting it.

Of course you would be wary of trusting it, it points squarely at you. 

Why would you think wagonomics were screwed by scars actions? The kills were made AFTER votes closed. I'm fact, I would say those results are a truer representation as Wolves would have been more comfortable to vote off wagon.because they would have thought there would be more votes off it than their was. In fact, it wasn't until 20 past 9 that Scar killed Gordon, so i really don't understand your point

(13-08-2025, 02:09 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: I'm exploring all possibilities, should I not do that? I wouldn't discount an Amy/Lilly combo though 🤔

(13-08-2025, 02:12 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: @Amy the Singer  FWIW you only started not trusting the wagonomics AFTER it started pointing at you. That's sussy as hell tbf, can you not agree there?

(13-08-2025, 02:19 PM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote:

(13-08-2025, 02:09 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: I'm exploring all possibilities, should I not do that? I wouldn't discount an Amy/Lilly combo though 🤔

I'll happily shoot one of the two

(11-08-2025, 01:30 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote:

(11-08-2025, 01:16 PM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: Amy didn't post the ISO's


Can you expand on this part please, what else did you notice

On mobile and finding it hard with all the multi quotes to keep track of poster on header. She said she ISOd Lilly and me so thought all the multi quotes were her. Don't want to say what I noticed as I've done enough damage, but it was a query regarding a village role.

(11-08-2025, 05:38 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote:

(11-08-2025, 05:00 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Am struggling a bit getting going if I'm honest. A bit busier than I thought I'd be so mostly monitoring thread and jumping in when I can. Happy to answer any questions though. 
Currently doing a redback and updating my notes.

You said you had an ISO done earlier and now you're taking more notes?

(11-08-2025, 05:53 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote: Honestly right now Amy is my biggest red flag.

Much as I don't like Gordon's declare two votes plan, which completely contradicts his earlier devils advocating of an ongoing tally of votes, I don't see a wolf being that noisy and drawing that much heat early on.

Earlier I thought Amy had done detailed ISOs of Lilly and me to support us as top two suspect but that was actually Dexter and she just stated she had done an ISO and we were top two. Now several hours later she is taking notes when she said approx half three she would be home in an hour to post her ISOs she'd already done. Added to that she was very quick to jump on Gordon's frankly terrible two votes declaration which only benefits wolves. It's not a good look.

Wasn't a fan of Oprah's posts towards Xeena but not enough to vote there. The more they post the more I don't like it. Very defensive, saying people who posted before them are parroting them is ridiculous. Don't see much attempt at wolf hunting.

Lilly still towards the top of my suspicions also. Conflicted as to whether they were putting pressure or role hunting, although same could be said of me.

There's a few floating middle people not making much of an impression, which worries me a bit. Friar, Moe, Countess.

Good for me are Boris, Mc and Jacob.

(12-08-2025, 10:33 AM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 10:27 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: Expand on this...

With the numbers we need to focus on catching a wolf today and analytically the best bet is in those three posters

If Amy is a wolf than I can't be a wolf as I wouldn't have started a wagon on a wolf. If I am a wolf than Amy would be town as why start wagon on a wolf.

We could also both be town. I know I'm village, don't know Amy's alignment. 

We have to be super careful as we can't afford to flip wrong. For me Countess has more red flags than Amy at this stage. I can't get past claiming not to know whether Elsa was good or bad and not noticing Mc clearing Jacob.

(12-08-2025, 05:57 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote: OK finally caught up.

Dexter: big claim of core village, no counterclaim so will believe for now. This is good as the Vincent shooting thing was mighty flippant when it was 5 vs 4, gave me a big pause.

Countess. I still think they are playing the Fool and floating along. Not knowing Elsa was village, not noticing the Jacob/Mc clear, now rowing in behind Amy and Dexter voting for me on a spurious basis right after saying best odds on finding a wolf were in the Oprah voters.

Jake to me is either Hans or village based on the McDonald clear, I think the wolves would have known Mc Donald was bluffing if another wolf bar Hans was cleared. But then they would they not have munched Mc if Jacob was Hans? don't find their posts particularly helpful and there was some misattributing of votes at tally last night. Not really sure about Jake

Xeena: I know she is new but that's all she says. Asks what's going on and what is happening. Not posting much and there doesn't seem to be any eagerness to wolf hunt.

Vincent. Very similar to Xeena. Not posting much. Not trying to figure things out. The is village good question seemed in stark contrast to assessing the hit rate of dead rolled posters vs NRVs. Scrupulously polite, as if not trying to make waves.

Lilly: Dunno. I wasn't keen on them yesterday, in large part due to the Mc power thief thing. When mc turned out to be scar didn't have as much misgivings about Lily, but they have been quite absent today which is giving me pause.

Amy: that's were I voted yesterday and I have stated my reasons, and they are still valid. The posting last night reassured me more and they are very active again today which is good. I don't like pushing the narrative that Boris peeked me and was hinting I was bad. I know he couldn't have done that as I'm village. His posts were questioning my reasons for voting on Amy, and at one point suggested I was confused. I'm wondering based on his querying of the Mc move, that he was wolf or village but not scar, and that since Dora was good that I should be looked at, whether he peeked Amy who showed as good, so Amy either village or Hans.

I will say Amy and Countess seemed most bummed about the 5 vs 4 situation earlier. Dexter seemed quite energised which bothers me, but role claim is a role claim.

Village to wolf

Village Dexter, me

Middle Amy, Jake, Lilly

Wolfiest Countess, Vincent, Xeena.

Not sure what way to vote.

(12-08-2025, 07:27 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 07:22 PM)Vincent the Artist Wrote: @Raymond the Shoemaker  - if you could expand a bit on what you mean about my not reacting I'm more than happy to try to respond

You are addressing it now but not at the time when it happened, that's what's bothering me. If you didn't see it I'd understand that as an explanation. It just seems off to me.

(11-08-2025, 12:24 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Have read back and ISOd everyone. From my notes, Lily and Ray are suspicious. Both of them emphasise the peeking good wolf, which tbh is almost standard in most games these days so not really worth noting. It's mostly tone reading for me - neither come across as sincere, it feels forced.

That said, my notes on others are largely 'unsure' because it's D1 and there's the usual amount of nothing to go on.

(11-08-2025, 05:48 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Heading out in a few. Notes below.

Boris the Fool Bit spatty.Contributing. Sort of agree on the OTT thing. Engaged and challening people. Wouldn't vote here for now.

Countess Markievicz Measured. Unsure here. Not a lot of posts throughout the day. Doesn't feel like village game but they've been v quiet.

Dexter the Dragoon High poster. If wolf, Hans. Likely to draw munch or be peeked. Bit all over the place which makes me think village.

Dora the Explorer 1 Post but has done the maths. ISOd Friar Tuck. Why them? More posts today. Analysing with conclusions. If wolf, doing a lot of work. Not sure I agree on Dex but working. I'm on FFA but currently reading through my posts - cart before horse?

Friar Tuck Dora doesn't like posts but not seeing a lot here. Very low posting. Be good to hear more.

Gordon the Cook Mostly leaning good here. Observant and engaged. Putting thoughts out there.

Jacob the Tailor Exactly 5 posts yesterday. Tone reading - seems a bit stating the obvious. Bit off. Also says Oprah sowing confusion. Is this not echoing what Dex said? Collusion in BR?

Lilly the Millennial Unsure of opening post. Something a bit off there tonewise. Post about post counts. Spotted thing on powers thief. Quotes without names thing. Shoot @McD, peek @Dex. Quite defensive in responses today. Can't shake the tone being off.

McDonald the Farmer What's with the powers thief? I read it as apprentice. Seems to be just reading and reacting. Aggressive enough. Not sure about the just 2 on FFA thing. Overall neutral to village for me.

Moe the Innkeeper 1 Post but experienced enough. Limited posts today. Hard to get a read but asking questions and gave reads on readback. Again would like to hear more.

Oprah the Gossip Are they sowing confusion? Not sure I agree with that read. The are 'tunnelling' on Cruella - easy place to boost post counts. Defensive enough. One to watch.

Raymond the Shoemaker Paying attention, corrected Dex. Unfinished post? Says something v similar to Lily about wolf peeking good. Suggests discussions around vote tallying are OTT. Not against discussion but manner of it. Questions McD on Jacob veto. Definitely aware of what's happening but posts today read better tonewise.

(11-08-2025, 05:49 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Based on my notes my #FFA:

Lily
Jacob
Countess M

I'm going to put my vote in for Lily.

(13-08-2025, 04:32 PM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote:

(11-08-2025, 05:53 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote: Honestly right now Amy is my biggest red flag.

Much as I don't like Gordon's declare two votes plan, which completely contradicts his earlier  devils advocating of an ongoing tally of votes, I don't see a wolf being that noisy and drawing that much heat early on.

Earlier I thought Amy had done detailed ISOs of Lilly and me to support us as top two suspect but that was actually Dexter and she just stated she had done an ISO and we were top two. Now several hours later she is taking notes when she said approx half three she would be home in an hour to post her ISOs she'd already done. Added to that she was very quick to jump on Gordon's frankly terrible two votes declaration which only benefits wolves. It's not a good look.

Wasn't a fan of Oprah's posts towards Xeena but not enough to vote there. The more they post the more I don't like it. Very defensive, saying people who posted before them are parroting them is ridiculous. Don't see much attempt at wolf hunting.

Lilly still towards the top of my suspicions also. Conflicted as to whether they were putting pressure or role hunting, although same could be said of me.

There's a few floating middle people not making much of an impression, which worries me a bit. Friar, Moe, Countess.

Good for me are Boris, Mc and Jacob.

Does a wolf put another wolf as biggest red flag? I don't think so

(12-08-2025, 09:22 AM)Amy the Singer Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 09:13 AM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote: I voted Amy fairly early, so I'm not sure why you are saying I am confused. They claimed they had taken detailed notes at half three and would post them at half four but when I questioned them far later than that they said they were still compiling notes. I also didn't like their support for the Gordon two votes plan, which could have led to an inadvertent tie.

To clarify this again...I did do ISOs early on but I had very limited time yesterday so I was going back over thread to see if anything had changed. You can actually see it in the notes I posted that I added to them and my thinking progressed. You seem hung up on this idea that I didn't do the ISOs early on. I did, I just didn't post a wall of quotes along with it because I don't actually think they're very helpful.  
Based on early reads you and Lilly were suspicious to me. Based on later reads, you fell down the suspicious pecking order. 
On the Gordon's idea thing - I didn't spend a whole lotta time thinking about it but it was based on the idea that declaring and tallying votes wasn't the best idea, which had been a running theme. In the end, majority decided against it, and I went with that. As I recall, I might've been the most vocal about going along with that plan but I don't think I was the only - going back to read that now to be sure.

(12-08-2025, 09:32 AM)Amy the Singer Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 09:31 AM)Lilly the Millennial Wrote: Because at the time before the lynch, there were 2 wagons. Oprah and Amy, I wasn't a counter wagon based on the tallies by Jacob and Mc.
Wolves are known to spread across the wagons.

But you were working with the vote counts AFTER the lynch. It's literally in your post.

(12-08-2025, 11:18 AM)Amy the Singer Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 11:06 AM)Dexter the Dragoon Wrote: To add to that, I think if Ray flips bad, I think Amy is the other one there due to Rays "clear" comment

Well you are wrong. I'm not a wolf.

(13-08-2025, 04:46 PM)Jacob the Tailor Wrote:

(12-08-2025, 07:27 PM)Raymond the Shoemaker Wrote: You are addressing it now but not at the time when it happened, that's what's bothering me. If you didn't see it I'd understand that as an explanation. It just seems off to me.

He goes after Vincent too. I think this clears Vincent. There's a wolf in Amy, Lilly and Zeena

(12-08-2025, 01:38 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Current village to wolf list:

Amy
Dex
Countess
Jacob
Zeena
Vincent
Lilly
Raymond

(12-08-2025, 02:42 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: I'm on Ray myself

(12-08-2025, 06:10 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: @Lilly the Millennial I didn't insinuate anything about you being a wolf. In fact if you had read up to date you'd see that I actually said that Boris soft cleared you.

(12-08-2025, 08:51 PM)Amy the Singer Wrote: Also, just in case, Lilly referring to CM as Connie is ringing alarm bells but I could well be down a tunnel there.